Last night I spent two hours watching the Presidential debate on TV. Four out of the five candidates for the Mexican Presidency got together to talk about their proposal and ideas…and about each other…and it was an interesting sight, unlike what I thought it’d be.
I know I’ve never talked about politics here, but being born, raised and living in Mexico, I think I can be forgiven this one time :) It won’t happen again…until June 7th, the day after the second (and last) Presidential debate.
Up to the moment the debate started, I thought it’d be boring and mostly useless, because the format looked way too restrictive, but…I was wrong. Yes, it could have been better (don’t we all wish we could get debates like the one Vinick and Santos had in The West Wing a few episodes ago?), but it could have been a lot worse.
First, what it wasn’t. It wasn’t a serious pounding like the one Fox gave Lavastida six years ago. After that debate, nobody could deny the fact that Fox won and Lavastida left with his tail between his legs. It wasn’t a doctoral class on debate, like the one Diego Fernandez de Cevallos imparted during his debate twelve years ago…few people, even politicians, are as good at debating as El Jefe Diego is.
What it was, against all my predictions (and fears), was a mostly interesting time, with all four candidates willing to offer their ideas and proposals for making Mexico a better place. Yes, there were attacks and disqualifications, and yes, there were mistakes and ackward moments…but it was mostly a civilized showing of ideas, and I think that’s always a good thing for a democracy that is growing up.
Guadalupe Juárez, the moderator for the debate, did a very good job, keeping control at all times and letting the candidates do their thing. We barely noticed her presense and that’s the way it should be. Very well done.
The absence of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the candidate from the leftist Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) was barely acknowledged by the other candidates…and most people forgot he was even supposed to be there by 10 minutes into the debate. The empty podium set on the stage to represent the fact that he refused to participate was barely seen, and soon forgotten. I am one of those that think that AMLO made a terrible strategic mistake when he didn’t show up for the debate…I don’t like the guy, and have already promised myself that if he becomes President, I’ll move to Canada or Europe (I don’t like USA republicans either…extremism is a disease), so I’m glad he made the mistake…but it was an avoidable mistake that his excesive hubris pushed him into.
As for the ones that were present, in the order they appeared:
Roberto Madrazo, candidate for the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) and the Alianza por México. I noticed him overtly dependant on his notes, lacking the necesary confidence to step away from his script and letting things flow. His proposals were actually pretty decent, nothing extreme, nothing out of place, which was to be expected from the candidate from the PRI, being it as it is the party of the center. On the other hand, probably because of the strict format of the debate, he never explained *how* he pretended to accomplish the things he proposed. I think he may have tried to cram too many proposals in the alloted time and decided not to get in to the hows so he could get as many whats in as possible…and I feel that retracted from the effectivity of his presentation.
Roberto Campa, candidate for the Partido Nueva Alianza (PANAL). This is a new party, started by a group splintered from the PRI a few months ago, ruled by the most powerful teacher in Mexico, Elva Esther Gordillo, and it has only one objective, in my opinion, and that is to make life miserable for Madrazo and the PRI…and Campa reached his objective during this debate. He attacked Madrazo left and right, using every intervention he had to attack the candidate for the centrist party, and leaving a few very well placed wounds, the main one being his acusation (unproven so far, but I’m sure some enterprizing journalist will start digging soon and we’ll know if it’s true or not) that Roberto Madrazo has not paid any of his taxes from 2003 to 2005. If this is proved (and Campa said he had the documents to prove it), this could be the coup de grace for Madrazo’s aspirations to being the Mexican President. Campa has no chance to be the next Mexican President, and I’m pretty sure that the only reason he and his party are in this is to do as much damage to Madrazo as they can.
Patricia Mercado, candidate for the Partido Alternativa Social Democrática y Campesina (Alternativa). She was the most refreshing surprise of the evening. She was calm, collected and nonconfrontational. She was also clear in her proposals, focusing on the problems that she has made her campaign on: Women and minorities. Not only did she avoid getting dragged into the rumble among the other candidates, she came across as somebody who cares about Mexico, and as somebody who has very definite (and plausible, from what we heard) ideas on how to make our country a better place to live. Bravo Patricia! You should be proud of your participation in this debate. She, just like Campa, has no chance in hell of becoming President, but I think that she would make a great job in Sedesol or DIF or any of the other social areas of the government. If Mexico were ready for a female President, Patricia Mercado, or somebody like her, would be the ideal candidate, IMNSHO. I hope Alternativa gets their permanent registry as a party (they need a 2% vote during the presidential election), Social democracy is, in my opinion, the best political inclination for the world at the current time…a moderate left that is willing to listen to the rest of the political spectrum.
Felipe Calderón, candidate for the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN). Felipe started the debate trying to avoid confrontation with Madrazo, ignoring him the first time he attacked him, but then got into it and gave as good as he got, and probably better. A detail I noticed (which has no real relevance, but even so) is that he was the only candidate to greet the other candidates and the moderator of the debate in his first participation. Just like the other candidates, he came with a set of proposals to offer to the voting public, but his aproach was much more structured than that of the others. He not only gave us his whats, he also tried to at least show us that he has been thinking about the hows. He seemed calm, relaxed and prepared, rarely looking at notes, talking fluidly and in a way that made us think he was talking about stuff he knew and not about stuff he had practiced over and over.
In my opinion, the winners of this debate were Felipe Calderón and Patricia Mercado. Felipe, because he demostrated that he has what is needed to be the President, with good ideas and a frank approach. Patricia became a credible candidate, who will not win the election, but can be seen as a respectable, interesting and inteligent political figure, who a lot of us will want invited to be part of the winner’s cabinet.
The losers are also clear. On the one hand, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, by not being here, made a lot of people (me included) think that he fears having his ideas compared to those of the other candidates. His campaign strategy has focused on his refusing to do things…refusing to answer general culture questions in one interview, refusing to participate in the debate, refusing to talk with the corporate moguls, refusing to accept the validity of any poll that doesn’t show him winning by ten points…refusing seems to be his campaign motto. On the other hand, Roberto Madrazo, who seemed to be a fish out of the water, stiff and unnatural in his participations, more worried about attacking Calderón than about offering Mexico his ideas.
Now let’s hope that the next debate, on June 6th, is as good or better than this one, and that AMLO does participate in it…yes, I don’t like him, his party or his ideas, but I believe that Mexico deserves to be told what he wants to do, and that he has the obligation of standing up with the rest of the candidates and talk to us.
In the next few days, we’ll see who wins the post-debate, which is where the points in the polls actually change. I’m betting on a three or four point win for Felipe, a couple of points up for Patricia, Campa staying as he is (not that he has all that much) and Madrazo and AMLO losing two or three points each on the next round of polls.
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